A new forecast from the U.S. Travel Association predicts that inflation-adjusted international visitor spending will fall by nearly $11 billion in 2026. This 6.3 percent decline brings total international spending down to $163 billion, even as domestic travel reaches record numbers.

Why is international visitor spending declining?

Several economic and competitive factors are contributing to the slowdown in overseas arrivals. While Americans are taking more domestic trips, the cost of travel is rising significantly. Forecasts suggest travel prices will climb 7.2 percent in 2026, which is more than double the overall inflation rate of 3.4 percent.

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Additionally, the United States is losing its share of the global long-haul market. The nation's share of these arrivals fell from 10.3 percent in 2019 to a projected 7.1 percent by 2030. Key competitors are seeing much higher growth:

  • Japan: Projected 40.7 percent increase in arrivals from 2019 to 2026.
  • Spain: Projected 27.7 percent increase in arrivals.
  • France: Projected 23.1 percent increase in arrivals.

What does this mean for the U.S. economy?

The loss of international travelers puts pressure on major tourism hubs like New York City, Miami, Orlando, and Los Angeles. In New York City specifically, international visitors accounted for approximately half of all tourism spending in 2025.

Industry leaders are looking toward policy shifts following the recent midterm elections to address these trends. While Democrats have gained control of both chambers of Congress, the executive branch maintains authority over immigration and visa administration. This political split could lead to legislative gridlock regarding tourism promotion funding and border procedures.

Beyond local city economies, the broader industry serves as a massive pillar of the national economy. The sector provides employment for over 15 million people and contributes roughly $92 billion to state and local tax coffers.

FAQ

When are international arrivals expected to return to 2019 levels?

U.S. international arrivals are not forecasted to recover to their 2019 levels until the year 2030.

How much does the travel industry support in the U.S.?

The travel sector provides livelihoods for more than 15 million workers and brings in $92 billion in tax revenue for local and state governments.