Recent economic reports released in mid-October indicate significant rising price pressures across the United States. Data shows that import prices, export prices, and prices charged by American producers have all recorded their largest annual increases since 2022.

What is driving the price pressures?

Fuel costs appear to be a primary driver of the recent shifts. According to Orphe Divounguy, founder of the Quantitative Research Group, fuel accounted for approximately 40% of the September import price surge. Specific energy increases include:

  • Natural gas import prices jumped 96.5% over the past year.
  • Petroleum and petroleum product prices rose 35.4% from September 2025 to September 2026.
  • Brent crude oil averaged roughly $114 per barrel in September.

These energy costs are spilling across the economy, impacting sectors such as airfares, delivery services, and trucking.

How have producer and import costs changed?

The Producer Price Index, which tracks costs for goods and services before they reach consumers, rose 1.3% in September. This represents the largest monthly increase since March 2022. On an annual basis, these producer prices climbed 6.3%, the highest yearly jump in nearly four years.

Import prices also saw a significant uptick, rising 1.1% from August to September. From a year-over-year perspective, import prices increased by 8.1%, marking the largest 12-month increase since July 2022. Meanwhile, export prices rose 11.6% from a year earlier, their highest annual increase since July 2022.

Impact on the broader economy

While higher export prices can increase revenue for American businesses, they may also make domestic goods less competitive internationally. Additionally, rising import costs for raw materials can lead American producers to pass higher expenses along to their customers. Although the grocery sector has largely been spared so far, economists suggest there are upside risks to food prices in the future.

FAQ

What was the largest annual increase in import prices since 2022?

Import prices rose 8.1% from a year earlier, which is the highest annual increase since July 2022.

How did the Producer Price Index perform in September?

The index rose 1.3% for the month, the largest monthly increase recorded since March 2022.