The Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker was updated on Friday with a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute, and the aggregate now shows 27 percent support for Alberta independence before undecideds are excluded. The update comes ahead of Monday's referendum on Alberta independence, with further tracker updates expected over the weekend.

What is the Alberta independence support level?

The tracker's aggregate places support for separation at 27 percent before the exclusion of undecided voters, according to the Writ Drop newsletter. The newsletter notes that the Angus Reid Institute has recorded higher support for separation than most other pollsters, so its inclusion affects where the aggregate sits.

What else is on the voting calendar?

The Alberta referendum is one of several votes and campaigns the newsletter flags for the coming week:

  • Monday's referendum on Alberta independence, which the newsletter also discusses on its podcast.
  • The British Columbia election campaign, with little more than a week remaining before voting day.
  • A tightening mayoral race in Toronto.

How do the federal and B.C. numbers look?

The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were updated during the week with polls from Liaison Strategies, EKOS Research, Nanos Research and Abacus Data. The Liberals hold a 15.4-point lead over the Conservatives in the vote projection, and a Léger poll published Friday afternoon, not yet added to the model, also showed a 15-point Liberal lead.

In British Columbia, the tracker was updated several times with polls from Léger, Research Co., Pallas Data and Ipsos. The B.C. Conservatives are holding their advantage and are projected to win 51 seats to the NDP's 40, according to the newsletter. Premier David Eby called the election two years ahead of schedule, and the leaders' debate took place Friday night.

Is the B.C. race still open?

The newsletter says little more than a week remains in the campaign and that things could still change after the debate, though it describes the polls as not looking good for the New Democrats. It also points to a Quebec post-election episode of its French-language podcast, covering the Parti québécois minority victory, the CAQ's losses and several Liberal wins.

FAQ

What does the 27 percent figure represent?

It is the tracker's aggregate support for Alberta independence before undecided voters are excluded.

Which pollster prompted the latest update?

The update followed a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute, which the newsletter says has recorded higher separation support than most other pollsters.